Gerrymandering Gamesmanship

Byline: American Pulse Staff
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Dustin Olson, pollster for American Pulse Research & Polling, joined Fox5DC's DMV Zone to break down Maryland Governor Wes Moore’s proposal on redistricting and the broader implications of partisan map-drawing across the country.

Maryland’s Gerrymandering Reality

Olson noted that Maryland already ranks among the most gerrymandered states in the nation, with Democrats holding nearly every seat despite Republican voters making up a significant share of the electorate. He explained that Democrats have been especially aggressive in reshaping districts for decades, which is why today’s House margins are so razor-thin.

"This is a state that is one of the most gerrymandered in the country, where Republicans should have either two to three seats in the state based on the statewide voting. So it’s a bit rich."

A Clever Political Setup

According to Olson, Governor Moore’s approach was carefully designed to shield himself from blame by tying Maryland’s redistricting efforts to moves made in other states. With Texas and California already advancing their own maps, Maryland’s changes are all but inevitable.

"The governor has set it up fairly cleverly because he has it that it’s triggered by any other state doing it… so in some ways he’ll be able to say, ‘Well, I didn’t do it, they forced me to do it.’"

Olson added that Democrats can only really “improve” the map for themselves if they manage to squeeze out a full eight seats—something that highlights how much partisan advantage they’ve already extracted from Maryland’s lines.

The Unequal History of Gerrymandering

While both parties engage in gerrymandering, Olson pointed out that Democrats have historically been far more effective and aggressive in doing so. He pointed to legal action by left-leaning organizations that has repeatedly forced states like North Carolina and Ohio to redraw maps throughout the decade in attempts to give Democrats additional advantages. 

Olson explained that gerrymandering has grown more precise in the last 20 years thanks to advanced data analytics. What once was a blunt political tool can now be deployed with surgical precision, allowing maps to be drawn down to the household level.

"A lot of this comes from improved statistical software... Democrats have been fairly aggressive at it over the last 15 years."

Long-Term Impact Favors Republicans

Although Democrats have historically dominated the gerrymandering game, Olson explained that the long-term math favors Republicans if they begin to match Democrats’ aggressiveness. He noted that Democrats have already extracted most of their available advantage, leaving little room to gain a lot more seats. Republicans, on the other hand, could potentially flip more districts if they pushed harder.

"If both sides go to the extremes on this, the math will work out better for Republicans. Now my perspective is Republicans are fairly timid when it comes to this, and I doubt they have the gumption to go as far as some of these other states have done."

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