POTUS Mornings: Olson Talks NYC Mayoral Race & Crime Concerns

Byline: American Pulse Staff
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Dustin Olson, lead pollster for American Pulse Research & Polling, joined SiriusXM’s POTUS Mornings with Tim Farley to share new polling insights and political analysis on the 2025 New York City mayoral race, the role of crime in urban politics, and the trust gap facing Democrats after President Biden’s decline.

Shifting Energy within the Democrat Party

Olson said the cover up of President Biden’s cognitive decline marked a turning point for many voters — a “Wizard of Oz moment” where “they saw the man behind the curtain.” Farley asked if this caused an appetite for generational change in the Democrat party.

"People are kind of looking for generational change...if you want to predict the future, you always want to follow the energy and where it's going. And I think it's with some of these younger candidates."

But Olson cautioned that the issue wasn’t just age — it was also trust. He said Democrats suffered lasting damage from trying to minimize Biden’s decline. Some in the media have come around, but it might be too little too late: “You see some in the media doing it with Jake Tapper in his book, and I think that that's probably a healthy thing for the media to do, but there definitely is a loss of trust there...it’s become a bit of ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’”

NYC Mayor’s Race: Crime at the Center

Olson said the defining issue in the New York City race is crime. His latest polling shows overwhelming concern among voters: “85% of New Yorkers say that crime is a problem. Nearly 50% say it’s a serious problem.”

That concern, he explained, is shaping how voters respond to candidates’ records and proposals — from Mamdani’s support for disbanding NYPD’s Strategic Response Group to Cuomo’s Cashless Bail.

Mamdani’s Ceiling and Floor

Despite leading the pack, Olson said Zohran Mamdani has his vulnerabilities. The polling suggests Mamdani has a solid base of support but also a hard ceiling.

“Mamdani definitely has a ceiling, but he also has a floor...probably about 33%, which in this race would still win.”

Olson noted that certain issue positions could cut into Mamdani’s numbers: “58% were less likely to vote for Mamdani based on defunding the police and disbanding the strategic response group.”

Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa

Olson said Andrew Cuomo has slipped in polling and faces backlash over cashless bail, which 54% of New Yorkers say they're less likely to vote for Cuomo because of it. Eric Adams, he argued, is in deep political trouble — weighed down by corruption scandals, denied taxpayer campaign funds, and carrying a negative 35 net favorability.

Given Adams' variety of issues, Olson remarked: “So those are all the things that say that Eric Adams is not likely to be ascendant anytime soon.”

By contrast, Olson noted that Curtis Sliwa is gaining support month over month. If Cuomo is able to split Democrat support with Mamdani and Sliwa could consolidate Republican support and pick up some independents, Sliwa could become a real contender.

Numbers That Matter

For Olson, the race comes down to hard numbers: sky-high concern over crime, backlash against progressive policing policies, and collapsing favorability for scandal-plagued candidates.

“With every one in two New Yorkers saying crime is not just a problem, but a serious problem...this is where we’ll see the fall campaign go.”

📊 For our latest NYC Mayoral poll, visit: PollingClub.com